Across America’s power grid, there’s a growing gap between what we need and what we’ll allow.

As the planet warms and climate disasters grow more costly, the U.S. has set a target to reach 100% clean energy by 2035, a goal that depends on building large-scale solar and wind power.

A nationwide analysis by USA TODAY shows local governments are banning green energy faster than they’re building it.

At least 15% of counties in the U.S. have effectively halted new utility-scale wind, solar, or both, USA TODAY found. These limits come through outright bans, moratoriums, construction impediments and other conditions that make green energy difficult to build.

The impediments come as a gigantic effort to build green energy also is underway. U.S. energy from commercial wind and solar is expected to hit 19% by 2025, and those sources are expected to surpass the amount of electricity made from coal this year.

But green energy must increase radically over the next 11 years to meet U.S. goals. And those projects are becoming harder to build.

Sola panels at the future Springfield solar farm in the Town of Lomira, Wisconsin on Tuesday, June 20, 2023. The nearly 900-acre, 100 megawatt solar project is being completed by Alliant Energy, and it’s expected to create enough energy to power approximately 25,000 homes. Mike De Sisti, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

In the past decade, about 180 counties got their first commercial wind-power projects. But in the same period, more than twice as many blocked wind development. And while solar power has found more broad acceptance, 2023 was the first year to see almost as many individual counties block new solar projects as the ones adding their first projects.

The result: Some of the areas with the nation’s best sources of wind and solar power have now been boxed out.

Because large-scale solar and wind projects typically are built outside city limits, USA TODAY’s analysis focuses on restrictions by the county-level governments that have jurisdiction. In a few cases, such as Connecticut, Tennessee and Vermont, entire states have implemented near-statewide restrictions.

While 15% of America’s counties might sound like a small portion, the trend has significant consequences, says Jeff Danielson, a former four-term Iowa state senator now with the Clean Grid Alliance.

“It’s 15% of the most highly productive areas to develop wind and solar,” he said. “Our overall goals are going to be difficult to achieve if the answer is ‘No’ in county after county.”

The country’s green-energy deadline now sits just 11 years away. But even if politicians fail to meet that goal, another clock is ticking.

Last year, 2023, was the warmest in recorded history, warmer than any other in 125,000 years. And with rising temperatures come rising risks: stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic, more severe cloudbursts in storms across North America, increasing drought in the Great Plains, larger wildfires in the West.

Construction isn’t happening fast enough to meet the country’s green energy needs, said Grace Wu, a professor of energy resources at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

“I’m worried about what’s ahead,” she said.

The shift to green energy, and the rise of bans

The transition to green energy involves a profound national shift: a move from power plants that mostly burned coal, then natural gas, to new wind and solar installations. That also means shifting much of the nation’s energy generation to new regions, specifically the large wind belt down the middle of the country and the sunny southeast and southwest.

“Clean energy” includes other emissions-free sources such as nuclear (18%) and hydropower (6%). But both of those are controversial in their own right and unlikely to see major expansion in the U.S.

And sources such as rooftop solar panels on houses or businesses, while helpful, provide just a tiny fraction of the total power supply.

Wind turbines in Concordia, Kansas, in 2020 (left) and Goff, Kansas, in 2023 (right). Wind power gained momentum in the early 2000s, but in recent years, hundreds of counties have implemented bans or impediments preventing new wind farms. Jasper Colt, USA Today; Josh Morgan, USA Today.

In the Northeast, several coastal states have instead made plans to rely on offshore wind turbines. But a wave of disinformation in 2023, falsely claiming offshore wind projects killed whales, resulted in a sharp decline in public support for offshore wind.

The only likely way to shift away from fossil fuels quickly is a sharp increase in solar and wind farms big enough to replace power plants, each one powering tens of thousands of homes.

The total amount of energy a solar plant can make varies widely based on size and location. The average-size solar plant today can power about 20,000 homes. A field of wind turbines can be similar, as each turbine can power about 1,000 homes.

The first large-scale wind farm in the U.S. started running nearly 50 years ago, in the aftermath of a global oil crisis. Built in Southern California, it powered more than 4,000 homes.

Wind power gained momentum in the early 2000s thanks to better technology and tax incentives.

But the number of new wind projects opening annually peaked in the early 2010s, according to inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and has slowed since then.

Wind power is expected to grow 11% by 2025 from last year’s levels. In the past 10 years, 183 counties saw their first wind projects come online. However, USA TODAY’s analysis found that in the same period, nearly 375 counties have essentially blocked new wind development. That’s almost as many as the 508 counties – out of 3,144 total in the U.S. – currently home to an operational wind turbine.

Utility-scale solar plants, using solar panels that have grown dramatically more efficient, have proliferated in the past decade. The U.S. added a record 33 gigawatts of solar power in 2023, and solar is expected to grow 75% by 2025. More than 1,000 counties now host solar farms.

“A solar panel in my part of Michigan produces 70% of the solar power the same panel in Phoenix, Arizona, does. Most people would expect the difference to be much bigger,” said Sarah Mills, a professor of urban planning at the University of Michigan who studies energy policy and land use.

Sarah Mills, a professor of urban planning at the University of Michigan, says that if the nation’s wildest and sunniest places reject wind turbines and solar farms, those sources must move to areas that are less efficient and more expensive. Junfu Han, USA Today NETWORK

However, opposition also has shot up, according to USA TODAY’s analysis. Of the 116 counties implementing bans or impediments to utility-scale solar plants, half did so in 2023 alone.

This surge in obstacles is unprecedented since green-energy technology gained broad acceptance.

“The local regulation landscape for renewables is changing quickly,” said Tamara Ogle, a member of the land use team at Purdue University Extension who inventoried Indiana’s renewable energy ordinances in 2022.

Despite growing hostility, green energy can be an economic windfall in places that welcome it.

Much like places such as Texas and Alaska grew rich when drilling companies struck oil, solar and wind power can bring in both construction work and cash, in the form of leases and tax revenue from the power plants.

Attend a county zoning or commission meeting and there will most likely be conspiracy theories and wild accusations about the dangers of renewable energy and even questions about whether global warming truly exists – often the exact same arguments put forth by fossil fuel funded think tanks.

But as person after person comes to the podium, another theme develops. Often, the people say they don’t reject the need for renewable power. But whatever their arguments, one sentiment underlies them – sadness and sometimes anger as they contemplate what feels like a massive change in the place they live and love.

US counties are blocking the future of renewable energy: These maps, graphics show how

The U.S. has set a goal to reach 100% clean energy by 2035, but a nationwide analysis by USA TODAY shows that achieving it is increasingly unlikely – local governments are banning green power faster than they’re building it.

At least 15% of counties in the U.S. have effectively halted new utility-scale wind, solar, or both, USA TODAY found. These are not the solar panels you might have on your house but installations significant enough to replace power plants, each one powering tens of thousands of homes.

The limits come in the form of outright bans, moratoriums, construction impediments and other conditions that make green energy difficult to build.

The opposition to renewable energy isn’t as simple as left vs. right. There’s no one group fighting renewables. Instead, there are many, with a range of objections. But the overall result is rapidly increasing the limits on clean energy.

While 15% of U.S. counties may sound like a small portion of the country, the rate of those bans and impediments is increasing quickly.

Counties blocking solar power are nearly equal to counties adding it

USA TODAY’s analysis, backed by energy and academic experts, gauges which counties have effectively blocked or impeded new utility-scale wind and solar power. The findings reveal that 2023 was the first time the number of counties curtailing new solar installations was almost equal to the number of counties adding their first solar farm.

Counties blocking wind power outnumber counties adding it

For wind energy, the blocks are even more significant. While 183 counties got their first commercial wind-power project in the past decade, nearly 375 counties blocked new wind development in the same period.

In 2009, 23 out of North Carolina’s 100 counties banned new wind projects. In 2014, Kentucky made it effectively impossible to build new turbines in all 120 of its counties and Connecticut did likewise in its eight counties. In 2017 Vermont did the same in its 14 counties. In 2018 Tennessee essentially stopped new wind projects in all but four of its 95 counties.

These statewide blocks are in addition to many individual counties in the Great Plains, the Midwest and Texas – known as the wind belt – which have restricted wind turbines or created rules so power companies don’t pursue certain locations.

The US has great wind and solar energy potential

In areas where the wind blows faster and more consistently, wind turbines can make more electricity. In areas where the sky is consistently more sunny, solar panels can make more electricity. Scientists measure this as “energy generation capacity.”

But outright bans or other limits on wind turbines, especially in the Midwest, could block some of the highest potential for power generation in the nation. Likewise, the Southwest and Southeast have tremendous solar potential, but local restrictions sometimes block new large-scale solar plants in areas with high energy generation capacity.

Bans and impediments in these high-potential areas spread quickly in recent years

Restrictions on wind energy often, bans seem to spread to nearby counties. Even counties that have never had wind projects (but are near counties that have) are more likely to block new projects.

In the abstract example below, options for utility-scale wind production decrease sharply as required setback distances increase.

In a hypothetical example prepared by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we can see how wind power potential in Butler County, Nebraska, would look if operations were limited by structural setbacks – not just property line setbacks – of distances of 1,300 feet and 3,400 feet. A 3,400-foot setback would box out most available land possibilities for wind development.

Some counties have restrictive sound limits for wind turbines

Another impediment involves noise limits. In the 2010s, common concerns about wind turbines included health impacts from a swishing noise made by the blades. While these fears have been discounted by research, decibel limits remain. For example, Vermont limited turbine sound levels to 45 decibels at night – somewhere between rustling leaves and a household dishwasher.

Despite the recent rise in bans and impediments, the U.S. can still reach its goal of 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035. However, experts say the bans are a worrisome trend and will make achieving that goal more expensive as developers are forced to move projects to less windy and sunny areas.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory calculated the U.S. would require just 10,424 square miles to accommodate the necessary wind and solar farms. The lower 48 states of the U.S. comprise about 2.9 million square miles.

Some states are leading the way with wind and solar use

While many counties seek ways to keep clean energy out of their backyards, some places in America are embracing wind and solar. Iowa, for example, gets over 65% of its electricity from wind and solar, but 11 counties there now block new wind farms. Illinois, meanwhile, prohibits counties from banning wind and solar.

Wind and solar are the most economical energy solutions

Today, wind and solar are cheaper to produce than many other types of electricity. The unsubsidized cost of wind power has dropped 66% since 2009, while the cost of unsubsidized solar has fallen 84%, according to an annual analysis by Lazard, a financial advisory firm that publishes annual estimates of the total cost of producing electricity. This is the average levelized cost, which includes the cost to build, operate, fuel and maintain a power plant.

Several national think tanks and groups – many of which receive fossil fuel funding – have been putting out arguments, often false, opposing wind and solar power for years.

But sometimes, the big utility companies making money on fossil fuels are the same ones seeking to build solar farms or wind turbines.

And much of the opposition comes from local activists without obvious ties to national groups. Many are simply upset with what they see as a massive change in the places they love. USA TODAY visited communities in three states and viewed public meetings in a half dozen others to understand public sentiments for and against green energy proposals.